Committees could see fundamental shakeup after election

Thanks to a slew of retirements and the uncertainty heading into the midterm elections, members of the Budget and Appropriations panels face a game of musical chairs after Nov. 2.

Rep. Norm Dicks, D-Wash., is the leading candidate to take over the House Appropriations Committee if Democrats retain their majority, but he may have to choose between the full committee gavel and his current post of Defense Appropriations Subcommittee chairman, sources said.

The makeup of the House and Senate Budget and Appropriations committees will likely be significantly different after the election, with Republicans gunning to take back the majority and Democrats looking to stem their losses and hold on to their majority.

Outgoing House Appropriations Committee Chairman David Obey, D-Wis., announced in May that he would not seek re-election after serving more than 40 years in the House.

Obey's announcement meant that Dicks could ascend to the full committee chairmanship, but Dicks said he would want to keep his chairmanship of the Defense Subcommittee if he were chosen to lead the full committee. In addition, Rep. Chaka Fattah, D-Pa., may seek to challenge Dicks for the full committee spot.

Sources said Dicks will likely cite Obey as a precedent, noting he was full committee chairman and chairman of the Labor-HHS Appropriations Subcommittee beginning in 2007.

Should Dicks give up the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee, the next likely candidate for the post would be Rep. James Moran, D-Va., who is chairman of the Interior-Environment Appropriations Subcommittee.

Other significant departures from the panel include retiring Rep. Alan Mollohan, D-W.Va., who chairs the Commerce-Justice-Science Appropriations Subcommittee. Fattah and Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., are next in line for that position.

Meanwhile, Rep. Chet Edwards, D-Texas, is in a difficult race that The Cook Political Report classifies as a toss-up. If Edwards loses and the Democrats hold on to the majority, Rep. Sam Farr, D-Calif., would be next in line for the spot, followed by Rep. John Salazar, D-Colo.

These openings on the panel are expected to create other openings as members jockey for plum subcommittee chairmanships or ranking member spots, which make it tough to determine what the complexion of the committee will be. And depending on who is in charge, the subcommittees' jurisdictions or number of members could change.

Scott Lilly, a former Democratic clerk and House Appropriations staff director who is a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, said he believes it will be competitive to get any these positions. The Appropriations Committee "remains the most effective road to leadership," said Lilly.

Both Speaker Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and House Majority Leader Rep. Steny Hoyer, D-Md., are former appropriators.

On the Republican side, House Appropriations Committee ranking member Rep. Jerry Lewis, R-Calif., would need a waiver to either keep his position or become chairman if Republicans take over the House. Republican chairmen and ranking members are term-limited to six-year stints, and Lewis' sixth year ends in December.

But in part because Lewis spent most of that time in the minority, he has a good chance of getting a waiver to keep his spot, according to one source. Lewis helped his cause by backing House Republican leaders on an earmark moratorium they put forth this year, and he has been a significant fundraiser for Republicans, the source said.

But another source said that Republican leaders may think twice because of allegations that Lewis is too close to lobbyists.

Lewis is likely to point to Rep. Hal Rogers, R-Ky., who obtained a waiver in 2009 to continue as ranking member of the Homeland Security Appropriations Subcommittee.

Behind Lewis in seniority are Defense Appropriations Subcommittee ranking member Bill Young, R-Fla., Rogers, and Commerce-Justice-Science Appropriations Subcommittee ranking member Rep. Frank Wolf, R-Va.

Republicans will lose three top members in Reps. Todd Tiahrt of Kansas, Zach Wamp of Tennessee, and Mark Kirk of Illinois, all of whom are leaving the committee. Tiahrt is ranking member of the Labor-HHS Appropriations Subcommittee, and Wamp is ranking member of the Military Construction-VA Appropriations Subcommittee.

It will be up to the ranking member -- or full committee chairman if Republicans win the majority -- in consultation with leadership to fill the open spots, sources said.

On the Senate side, Sen. Daniel Inouye, D-Hawaii, will continue his tenure as Appropriations chairman next Congress if Democrats hold on to power. Inouye is on the ballot in November, but his race is not considered competitive.

If Republicans take over the Senate, Inouye is expected to become ranking member of the committee, with ranking member Thad Cochran, R-Miss., poised to take the gavel. The two serve as the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee chairman and ranking member, respectively, and would likely switch those roles with a change in party leadership.

As far as vulnerable appropriators, the Democrat in biggest trouble is Transportation-HUD Appropriations Subcommittee Chairwoman Patty Murray, D-Wash., who is locked in a tight race.

If Murray loses, it is unclear who would take over her position on the committee because the opening would likely trigger other moves.

Senate Military Construction-VA Appropriations Subcommittee Chairman Tim Johnson, D-S.D., said he would not rule anything out as far as switching subcommittees was concerned. But he stressed that he "will think about that when the election is all done."

Democrats will have to replace Energy and Water Appropriations Subcommittee Chairman Byron Dorgan, D-N.D., who is retiring. Murray, Interior-Environment Appropriations Subcommittee Chairwoman Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., and Johnson could seek the post, but Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., is fourth in line and she does not chair a subcommittee.

Republicans will look to replace five retiring members on the committee, including Transportation-HUD Appropriations Subcommittee ranking member Kit Bond, R-Mo.; State and Foreign Operations Appropriations Subcommittee ranking member Judd Gregg, R-N.H.; Energy and Water Appropriations Subcommittee ranking member Bob Bennett, R-Utah; Agriculture Appropriations Subcommittee ranking member Sam Brownback, R-Kan.; and Homeland Security Appropriations Subcommittee ranking member George Voinovich, R-Ohio.

Republicans will likely also have to replace Legislative Branch Appropriations Subcommittee ranking member Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, who lost her recent primary. Murkowski is considering a run as a write-in candidate.

With so many seats open on the committee, Senate Republicans are quietly considering their options, but will wait until after the election to decide.

"I think we have to wait until we have a new Congress and see who we have on the committees -- the leader has a lot to say about that -- and at that point we will see what's available and make a decision," said Interior-Environment Appropriations Subcommittee ranking member Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn.

Meanwhile, House Budget Committee Chairman Rep. John Spratt, D-S.C., is in the race of his life, with the contest listed as a toss-up by The Cook Political Report. Spratt is expected to remain chairman if he wins, sources said.

But if House Armed Services Committee Chairman Rep. Ike Skelton, D-Mo., loses his tight contest, Spratt would get to choose between Skelton's post and continuing to lead Budget.

In the event Spratt loses his seat, it is unclear who would move to the chairmanship. The winning position is not based solely on seniority but is chosen with heavy input from the speaker, sources said.

Rep. Allyson Schwartz, D-Pa., is next in line on Budget, but she said that holding that spot does not make her the automatic choice to replace Spratt should he lose and Democrats retain the majority.

If the Republicans take over the House, Budget Committee ranking member Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., would take over, sources said. Ryan would stay ranking member if Democrats retain control.

Republicans may have to replace Rep. Charles Djou, R-Hawaii, whose race is considered a toss-up by The Cook Political Report. Djou won a special election in May to replace former Rep. Neil Abercrombie, D-Hawaii, who is running for governor.

In the Senate Budget Committee, Sen. Kent Conrad, D-N.D. is expected to remain chairman if Democrats retain the majority and likely to slip to ranking member if not.

On the Republican side, Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala., is slated to become ranking member or chairman of the Budget Committee if Republicans take over after the November election.

Sessions' move comes under an agreement reached last year with Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, who will become ranking member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, a post held by Sessions. Grassley is above Sessions in seniority on the Budget Committee.