Disenchanted Dems

Two distinct storms are converging on Democrats, although the difference may matter more to President Obama in 2012 than to party legislators bracing for a deluge now. One of the storms is powered mostly by ideology; the other mostly by performance. Obama's agenda has ignited a fierce ideological backlash that is strongest among the elements of the white electorate that most resisted him in 2008 -- blue-collar men and women, and men with college degrees. His approach hasn't generated nearly as much ideological recoil in the "coalition of the ascendant" groups that keyed his 2008 victory -- minorities, young people, and college-educated white women. But his support among these voters is weakening as their frustration over the economy mounts. Each of these trends threatens congressional Democrats in the midterm election. The contrast between them, however, may be critical to Obama's hopes of recovering by 2012 from what could be a very painful 2010. "There's a big difference," says veteran Republican pollster Bill McInturff, "between what happens from now until November and Obama's re-election." The latest Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor poll released on September 10 captures these two discrete strains of disenchantment. The survey, which was conducted from August 27 through 30 and examines Americans' attitudes toward the economy, documents growing dissatisfaction with Obama's performance among virtually all major groups except for African-Americans. Ideology and performance are at the heart of unhappiness with Democrats. Among those groups that have long been cool toward him, Obama's approval ratings have reached arctic depths: They stand at only around 40 percent among white men with college degrees and white women without them, the so-called waitress moms. Meanwhile, the floor has collapsed for Obama among white men without college degrees -- less than one-third of these working-class men approved of his performance. To paraphrase former House Speaker Jim Wright, dogs might do as well in a poll of fire hydrants. Obama's grades have also fallen, in some cases even faster, among groups that supported him in 2008. His approval rating among college-educated white women, who gave him a majority of their votes in 2008, has dipped below 50 percent, and his standing among Hispanics (who gave him two-thirds) has tumbled to just above it. In 2008, Obama won two-thirds of voters under 30; now 56 percent of them approve of his performance. Only African-Americans have remained unshaken, with 90 percent of them approving. But if Obama's critics and supporters share disappointment in his performance so far, they diverge in their prescription for where the country should go next. Asked to define government's proper role, about two-fifths or more of blue-collar white men and women and college-educated white men endorsed the Ronald Reagan-like sentiment that "government is not the solution to our economic problems; government is the problem." But only about one-third of Hispanics and college-educated white women, and only one-fourth of young people, agreed. Similarly, while almost half of white men (with and without degrees) want to extend the George W. Bush tax cuts, less than one-third agree among the groups in Obama's 2008 coalition. Perhaps most tellingly, about half of those in the skeptical groups say that the country is "significantly worse off" because of Obama's policies. But among the groups in his 2008 coalition, a majority still say that the country is either already better off or is moving in the right direction, even if his agenda hasn't produced results yet. Although disappointed in conditions, the groups that preferred Obama have not had "a sudden ideological shift ... toward a more conservative position," Ruy Teixeira, an opinion analyst at the liberal Center for American Progress, says. These ideological fissures could offer Democrats some opportunity in November to repel Republican inroads among Hispanics, upscale white women, and other groups by arguing that a GOP victory would elevate priorities those voters don't support. However, it may be difficult to prevent many of those people from casting a protest vote this year against economic distress. These distinctions have larger implications for 2012. All of the results underscore the likelihood that Obama will face an energized ideological opposition grounded in the portions of the white electorate that have long been most dubious about him in particular and activist government in general. The poll, though, also suggests that Obama hasn't suffered an irreparable breach with the core groups that elected him -- if he can deliver a stronger economic recovery before sustained hard times snap their wavering faith in the course he has set.