Can One of the 'Happy Hour' Candidates Break Through Like Carly Fiorina Did?
The four lower-tier contenders are going to have a whole lot of airtime in which to make their pitches.
Carly FiorÂina made it onto the top-tier stage for CNN’s second GOP deÂbate after a strong showÂing in, and heavy lobÂbyÂing after, the first conÂtest for lower-polling canÂdidÂates. Now, the canÂdidÂates she left beÂhind on the botÂtom rung are gunÂning to folÂlow her exÂample.
FiorÂina won punÂdits’ and voters’ hearts at the deÂbate last month for her comÂposed, raÂtionÂal-soundÂing perÂformÂance. She seemed to rise above the colÂlectÂive GOP fray, lookÂing “preÂpared and poised,” The WashÂingÂton Post said. And she showed a strong, if unÂderÂstated, willÂingÂness to go tete-a-tete with her opÂponÂents, with conÂserÂvatÂive columÂnist Charles KrauÂthamÂmer callÂing her “very fluÂid yet very strong and comÂbatÂive.” Her sucÂcess transÂlated inÂto the polls, spurÂring CNN to change its methÂod of canÂdidÂate seÂlecÂtion and launchÂing her onto the prime-time stage.
Though the four reÂmainÂing canÂdidÂates in the lower-tier deÂbate can’t whole-hog emÂbrace FiorÂina’s style, her reÂcent sucÂcess makÂing it inÂto the A-level deÂbate at the very least gives them some hope. And with the loss of FiorÂina; Rick Perry, who dropped out of the race FriÂday; and Jim Gilmore, who didn’t qualÂiÂfy for this deÂbate, they’ll have a lot more airÂtime in which to make their pitches than they did durÂing the first match. Here, how each of the lower-tier canÂdidÂates is camÂpaignÂing goÂing inÂto the deÂbate—and how each could stand out on the not-so-crowded stage.
BOBBY JINÂDAL
GoÂing inÂto the second deÂbate, the LouisiÂana govÂernor has put all his eggs inÂto the anti-DonÂald Trump basÂket, trash-talkÂing Trump at events and plainly adÂvertÂising his disÂdain—and where and when he’ll next conÂvey it—on TwitÂter.
I’m going to continue my broadside attack against Trump on @AmericaNewsroom this morning at 10:05 EST. You don’t want to miss it.
— Gov. Bobby Jindal (@BobbyJindal) September 14, 2015
At face value, the strategy might look unÂwise for a low-polling canÂdidÂate: Why so obÂviÂously go after a front-runÂner and risk aliÂenÂatÂing voters who find Trump apÂpealÂing? JinÂdal, in an inÂterÂview this week on Fox, sugÂgesÂted his tacÂtic is a matÂter of prinÂciple, that he can’t sit idly by while a nonÂconÂserÂvatÂive like Trump traipses around the counÂtry.
But his tacÂtic is likely a comÂbinÂaÂtion of a few othÂer factors. In atÂtackÂing Trump, JinÂdal is showÂing the same willÂingÂness to go to battle that FiorÂina was praised for in the first deÂbate (alÂbeit without her comÂposÂure): If JinÂdal conÂveys that he’s willÂing to take on the big dogs, maybe voters will make him one. It’s also a play for greatÂer name reÂcogÂniÂtion—esÂpeÂcially seeÂing as Trump has punched back on his much larÂger naÂtionÂal platÂform—showÂing voters who haven’t sipped the Trump juice that JinÂdal is on their side.
Or JinÂdal could also simply be folÂlowÂing the Trump modÂel: The mogul’s blustery hyÂperÂcritÂicism has worked very well in his faÂvor, so unÂderÂperÂformÂing JinÂdal might as well give it a shot.
RICK SANÂTORÂUM
The one-time senÂatÂor from Pennsylvania was very voÂcal earliÂer this sumÂmer about his disÂpleasÂure over Fox’s two-tier deÂbate strucÂture, and it’s unÂlikely that he feels any difÂferÂently about CNN’s. But that aside, SanÂtorÂum looks to be more foÂcused on the ground game than whethÂer his apÂpearÂance in a TV deÂbate will cataÂpult him to the top. BeÂfore last month’s deÂbate, he sugÂgesÂted he won’t be preÂocÂcuÂpied by his standÂing in naÂtionÂal rankÂings—“[i]t is not a naÂtionÂal race”—and much prefers a state-by-state ralÂlyÂing of supÂport. Or in the case of Iowa, a county-by-county ralÂlyÂing: By last week, SanÂtorÂum had visÂited all 99 this cycle.Â
SanÂtorÂum’s prefÂerÂence is rooted in perÂsonÂal preÂcedÂent: DurÂing the 2012 cycle, it wasn’t a sinÂguÂlar deÂbate perÂformÂance that thrust SanÂtorÂum to the front of the pack. Rather, it was his hyÂperÂfoÂcused camÂpaignÂing in Iowa. As NBC News noted reÂcently, SanÂtorÂum was toÂward the botÂtom in Iowa this time in 2011, but two months after hitÂting all 99 counties in NovemÂber 2011, he won the Iowa caucuses. Even if SanÂtorÂum doesn’t wow the crowd WedÂnesÂday night with his policy anÂswers, he can show them that he’s willÂing to put in the leg work, in some cases litÂerÂally, to earn their vote.
LINDÂSEY GRAÂHAM
LindÂsey GraÂham told NBC News beÂfore last month’s conÂtest that he’d have a greatÂer “chance” in the lower tier “where there’s not so much noise and gibÂberÂish.” On WedÂnesÂday, without Perry, Gilmore, and FiorÂina, he’ll have even more time on the air to talk policy, and to sell voters on the idea that he can’t be disÂcounÂted.
GraÂham’s presentÂing himÂself to voters as one of the only truly seasoned canÂdidÂates in the race, havÂing served in the SenÂate since 2003 and in the House of RepÂresÂentÂatÂives beÂfore that. He’s built a camÂpaign around the tough-talkÂing, hawkÂish apÂproach to forÂeign policy that he’s shown off in the upÂper chamÂber, and is likely to use WedÂnesÂday’s even tiÂniÂer deÂbate—against two govÂernors and a one-term former senÂatÂor—to show off even more. GraÂham is also a funny guy, who cracks leÂgitÂimÂate jokes at camÂpaign events and isn’t afraid to colÂlabÂorÂate with new-meÂdia prankÂsters (see the IJReÂview video where he desÂtroys a cell phone). GraÂham could use that wit in the deÂbate to present a lightÂer side to himÂself—in between his anti-IsÂlamÂic State flamethrowÂing, of course.
In reÂcent months, GraÂham has brought along a show-and-tell demonÂstraÂtion on the stump: the presÂence of his SenÂate bud and former presÂidÂenÂtial canÂdidÂate John McÂCain. On the trail, GraÂham has reÂminded voters that early on in the 2007 cycle, McÂCain’s camÂpaign was flounderÂing, even though he went on to clinch the GOP nomÂinÂaÂtion. Both men seem to see the same poÂtenÂtial in GraÂham, and if his reÂmarks on the trail are any inÂdicÂaÂtion, GraÂham won’t be shy telling voters WedÂnesÂday night that he knows he’s got ground to make up.
GEORGE PAÂTAKI
The former New York govÂernor isn’t runÂning a terÂribly visÂible or traÂdiÂtionÂal camÂpaign. He’s been in the race since late May, but hasn’t made a splash with his rhetÂorÂic or set himÂself apart on policy. He’s a fly-beÂlow-the-radar kind of canÂdidÂate who, desÂpite exÂchanÂging reÂcent barbs with DonÂald Trump, can’t seem to gain the visÂibÂilÂity he needs; The New York Times reÂcently said that he “spends a lot of time these days reÂmindÂing voters that he used to run the State of New York.” PaÂtaki could be drowned out in the second-tier conÂtest, even in a “crowd” of four.