Opening line on 2012 pay raise: 1.6 percent
That's the key Labor Department indicator that has been used in recent years as the basis for military and civilian increases.
If history is a guide, federal employees could be in line for an average pay increase of 1.6 percent in 2012, based on figures released Friday by the Labor Department.
From September 2009 to September 2010, the change in the Employment Cost Index was 1.6 percent, a figure President Obama could use as a basis for his pay raise recommendation when he releases his 2012 budget proposal in February.
Under a 2004 law, military salaries must be increased annually at a rate equal to the change in the ECI for the private sector's wages. Past presidents often have backed the notion that federal employees should receive pay raises equal to those given to their military counterparts. But it's unclear whether Obama will advocate pay parity in his 2012 budget proposal.
While Obama's 2011 budget blueprint proposed equal raises for both groups, his 2010 proposal called for a 2 percent raise for civilians and a 2.9 percent raise for military members.
In addition, given the upcoming midterm elections on Nov. 2, it's unclear how the House and Senate would look at federal employee pay in the 2012 appropriations bills next year. If Republicans take over the House and/or the Senate, for example, the federal employee pay raise could be on the chopping block. This year, House Republicans proposed freezing federal raises as a way to save money and trim the budget deficit.