Courting Conservatives

As Sen. John McCain of Arizona begins moving to the right to maximize his chances of winning the 2008 Republican presidential nomination -- before making an equally inevitable move back toward the middle if he reaches the general election -- it will be fascinating to see how deftly he maneuvers.

If McCain were anywhere near as popular among Republicans as he has been among independents, Democrats, and most journalists, he would win the GOP nomination practically by acclamation. Within his own party, though, McCain is widely seen as far too much of a maverick and as someone who -- for all his fine qualities -- has never been a team player.

One can argue, as McCain does, that he has always been conservative on many policy issues. The perception of him as a moderate comes, in large part, from his personal style, his close bond with the news media, and his stands on various process issues, such as campaign finance reform. And, of course, McCain ran to George W. Bush's left during the 2000 presidential campaign.

If McCain is to win the support of the GOP faithful, he needs to shed his image as an undependable maverick. And he is clearly working to do just that. Even the White House communications director would not have defended Bush as vociferously as McCain recently did on Meet the Press. Whenever possible, McCain is jumping to the president's side to demonstrate that he is now a reliable team player.

But McCain isn't the only one doing the moving. The Republican establishment is showing unmistakable signs of edging his way. When you see Sen. Trent Lott of Mississippi taking McCain down to the Gulf Coast to look at hurricane damage and fawning over him at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference in Memphis, while vying with Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour to see who could suck up to McCain more, you know something is up.

A cynic might say that Lott and Barbour have visions of a running mate slot or a Cabinet post dancing in their heads. And perhaps they do. But the idea gaining greater currency within the GOP is that McCain is the only Republican who could defeat Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in the general election -- or that he would at least have the best chance of beating her.

The $64,000 question is how much McCain might jeopardize his potential general election support among Democrats and independents by bonding so publicly with the Right, including on his upcoming trip to Lynchburg, Va., to deliver the commencement address at the Rev. Jerry Falwell's Liberty University.

In two Cook Political Report/RT Strategies polls -- one taken in late February and the other in early April -- McCain received 18 percent of the self-identified "liberal" vote when matched up against Clinton. But will one in five liberals still support McCain if he continues to assiduously court conservatives?

In the latest Cook/RT Strategies poll, which was conducted April 6-9 and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.1 percent, McCain's lead over Clinton among all adults dropped from 10 points (47 percent to 37 percent) to 5 points. Among registered voters, it dropped from 12 points (48 percent to 36 percent) to 9 points (46 percent to 37 percent).

While these shifts aren't huge, the McCain-versus-Clinton spread should be watched closely in coming months: Will it remain in the 10-15-point range that most polls have found in recent months, or will McCain's average advantage be only in single digits?

And polls should gradually show whether McCain can gain enough ground among Republicans and conservatives to offset defections from Democrats, liberals, and even moderates.