After Iowa vote, New Hampshire and uncertainty await

NASHUA, N.H.--The race for the White House rolled into New Hampshire this morning with the stakes in Tuesday's primary rising and uncertainty about the outcome of both nomination contests deepening.

With the decisive Iowa victory of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, a contender most party leaders still believe cannot win the nomination, the Republican presidential race appears more wide open and unpredictable than ever.

The equally emphatic victory of Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., presents a stunning opportunity - if he can win again here next week - to seize a commanding advantage over Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, the Democratic frontrunner through much of 2007.

The Republican result in Iowa virtually ensured fragmentation and an extended contest. The Democratic finish offered the possibility of a quick consolidation behind Obama, but it also highlighted lingering divisions in the party that could produce a lengthy competition.

In Iowa, Obama showed a powerful capacity to expand the electorate, helping inspire a record-setting Democratic turnout that appeared to nearly double the Republican total. Those under 30 years old, independents, and upper-middle-class Iowans cast larger shares of votes than they did in the 2004 Democratic caucus (and a much larger share than in 2000), according to Edison/Mitofsky entrance poll results posted by CNN.

Obama dominated each of those groups, beating Clinton among independents by more than 2-to-1 and young people by an incredible 5-to-1. Nearly 60 percent said they were first-time caucus participants, compared to about 45 percent in the previous two caucuses. Obama beat Clinton by double-digits among those new voters.

But Obama, whose support had been concentrated among better-educated voters in pre-election polling, remained competitive with Clinton among the core Democratic constituencies that had been her strength in 2007 polls in Iowa and elsewhere.

He broke even with her among self-identified Democrats and voters earning $50,000 a year or less. He won men comfortably and even carried female voters. Only seniors resisted, preferring both Clinton and former Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., over Obama.

"Obama had the most well rounded support," said Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, who is unaffiliated in the race. "That bodes well for him going forward."

Obama's victory creates an enormous threat in New Hampshire for Clinton, who has maintained a narrow lead in most recent polls.

Younger people and independents, the groups that boosted Obama Thursday, typically constitute an even larger share of the vote in New Hampshire than in Iowa. And the decisive victory itself could lift Obama, just as an Iowa victory in 2004 propelled Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., past Howard Dean in New Hampshire.

For Clinton, the potential silver lining from Iowa is that the voting blocks where she ran best - partisan Democrats, seniors and lower-income voters - represent a larger share of the electorate in many subsequent states than in Iowa and New Hampshire. She has the money, organization and personal resilience to nurture that support.

"The thing about being a frontrunner is you can sustain some body blows and still go on to win," said Mellman.

The question Clinton faces is whether she can hold even her best groups if Obama intensifies his momentum with another victory here.

It is also unclear that she can regain the advantage if Democrats remain focused so much more heavily on Obama's message of change, which 51 percent of caucus-goers named as their top priority in a candidate than on experience, which was cited by 20 percent.

Edwards edged out Clinton for second place in Iowa and claimed a passionate following for his uncompromising populist message. But he faces an even starker question: where can he win if not the state where he invested by far the most time and resources?

On the Republican side, New Hampshire has a long tradition of rejecting the Iowa winner. It won't be easy for Huckabee to break that pattern.

His Iowa victory was built on support from socially conservative and religious voters, who are much less important here. Fully 60 percent of GOP caucus-goers identified themselves as born-again or evangelical Christians, and they preferred Huckabee over Mitt Romney by more than 2-to-1.

Among the rest of the Republicans, Huckabee actually finished behind not only Romney but also Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and former Sen. Fred Thompson, R-Tenn.

Huckabee's connection with Christian conservatives should make him a powerful force in South Carolina and other Southern states. But his weakness among secular voters is ominous for him in New Hampshire, where only 20 percent of Republican voters described themselves as born again in the 2000 primary between McCain and George W. Bush, and other states outside the South.

McCain, who has surged past Romney in several of the most recent New Hampshire polls, could be the major short-term beneficiary of the Iowa results. But the outcome there also suggested he could eventually face some of the same problems he did in 2000.

Iowa offered McCain two pieces of good news. First, Romney's surprisingly weak performance ensures he will not receive any tailwind heading into New Hampshire. Potentially just as important for McCain is the collapse in Iowa of Rudolph Giuliani. McCain has been dueling with Giuliani for moderate and independent voters in New Hampshire and attracting a growing share of them over the past month.

Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire's survey center, says that migration might accelerate after Giuliani's tumble to sixth-place in Iowa. "I could see his support just collapsing, which would help McCain absolutely," Smith says.

According to the entrance poll, McCain ran much more strongly among independents than Republicans and much better among moderates than conservatives. That's not a problem in New Hampshire, where independents and moderates vote in large numbers. But McCain failed to capture the nomination in 2000 after winning New Hampshire because he couldn't attract enough conservative Republicans in the states that followed.

Indeed with both Huckabee and McCain demonstrating relatively narrow appeals in Iowa, Giuliani collapsing, Thompson disappointing, and Romney sagging, it appears increasingly uncertain whether any of these candidates has the breadth of appeal to unify and energize their troubled party.